Fifteenth. Eleventh. Sixth. Ninth.
Those were Ronnie Coleman’s Mr. Olympia finishes from 1994 to 1997. Nobody watching that ninth place in 1997 thought they were looking at the next great champion. A year later he won the first of eight straight Sandows, and bodybuilding has not seen a jump like it since.
That matters this weekend, because Nick Walker finished sixth at last year’s Olympia. It was the lowest placing of his career. If “The Mutant” wins in Las Vegas, he joins a club with exactly one member.
We checked 61 years of Mr. Olympia results
We went through every Mr. Olympia in our database since 1965 and asked a simple question: where did each new champion finish the year before?
The Sandow has changed hands 17 times to a man who competed at the previous Olympia. (We left out the 1974 to 1979 era, when the show ran separate weight classes, plus three champions who sat out the year before: Arnold Schwarzenegger in 1980, Franco Columbu in 1981 and Big Ramy in 2020.) Here is where those 17 came from:
| Placing the year before | New champions |
|---|---|
| 2nd | 7: Schwarzenegger (1970), Dickerson (1982), Yates (1992), Cutler (2006, 2009), Heath (2011), Lunsford (2023) |
| 3rd | 5: Haney (1984), Jackson (2008), Choopan (2022), Dauda (2024), Lunsford (2025) |
| 4th | 2: Oliva (1967), Bannout (1983) |
| 5th | 2: Rhoden (2018), Curry (2019) |
| 6th or lower | 1: Coleman (1998, from 9th) |
Sixteen of the 17 came from the top five. Twelve came from second or third. Coleman is the entire bottom row.
What history says about every contender
Last year’s runner-up, Hadi Choopan, pulled out in August, which leaves the most successful launch pad in Olympia history empty. Four men are also making their debut, and we looked at what history says about first-timers too. Here is the rest of last year’s top six.
Derek Lunsford (1st in 2025): the champion vs. the curse
Lunsford’s biggest opponent might be a trend. The defending Mr. Olympia has lost four years running: Big Ramy in 2022, Choopan in 2023, Lunsford himself in 2024 and Samson Dauda in 2025. Nobody has held on to the title since Big Ramy did it in 2021.
Lunsford already has a comeback on his résumé. He lost the Sandow in 2024 (third place) and took it back in 2025, something only Jay Cutler had done before him. A win on Saturday would make him the first three-time champion since Phil Heath.
Andrew Jacked (3rd in 2025): the numbers love him
If you are betting on history alone, Jacked is your man. Five champions have won the year after finishing third, including the last two, Dauda in 2024 and Lunsford in 2025.
His Olympia record reads like a staircase: eighth in 2022, fifth in 2023 and 2024, third in 2025. He has not lost a show since, winning the Romania Pro, the Arnold Classic and the Arnold Classic UK.
Samson Dauda (4th in 2025): a 43-year drought
Fourth is a tough spot. Only Sergio Oliva (1967) and Samir Bannout (1983) have won from there, and it has not happened since Bannout.
If anyone can climb, though, it is Dauda. He went sixth on debut in 2022, third in 2023 and champion in 2024 before dropping to fourth last year. He won the Europa Pro on September 13 to prove the size is back.
Martin Fitzwater (5th in 2025): the back-to-back precedent
Fifth sounds far away until you remember what happened in 2018 and 2019. Shawn Rhoden finished fifth in 2017 at 42, then beat Phil Heath for the title a year later. Brandon Curry was eighth in 2017, fifth in 2018 and champion in 2019. Fitzwater, fourth on debut in 2024 and fifth last year, has a map to follow.
Nick Walker (6th in 2025): the Coleman question
No Mr. Olympia has ever won the year after finishing sixth. Only one man has won from anywhere below fifth, and you already know his name. Walker’s Olympia record is fifth in 2021, third in 2022 and sixth in 2025, and this weekend is his fourth try.
Here is the case for him. Last year’s sixth was a mistimed peak, not a ceiling. Since then he has beaten Choopan for the first time, taking second behind Jacked at the Arnold Classic, and won the Tampa Pro with a new coach. Two of the 13 experts on our 2026 Mr. Olympia predictions board, Chris Cormier and Guy Cisternino, picked him to win the whole thing.
Coleman broke the pattern once
Coleman was 34 in 1998, a veteran who had spent years stuck in the middle of Olympia lineups. Then he showed up in New York in the best shape of his life and nobody could touch him for eight years.
Walker does not need eight. He needs one night where the judges forget last October. If he brings the physique he showed in Tampa, the history books will need a new row.
The Men’s Open is judged on Friday and Saturday nights in Las Vegas. Every callout and every crowning goes up on our 2026 Mr. Olympia live updates page, and if you want the whole story of the Sandow, here is every Mr. Olympia champion since 1965.
