Career Trajectory Engine

What Is a Career Trajectory in Powerlifting?

A lifter's career trajectory describes the overall direction of their performance over time. Instead of looking at single meets in isolation, trajectory analysis applies linear regression to scoring formulas like DOTS, Wilks, or IPF GL across an athlete's full competition history. The result is a single trend line that answers a simple question: is this person getting stronger, staying the same, or declining?

The slope of that line - measured in points per year - tells you the rate of change. A positive slope means improvement, a near-zero slope indicates a plateau, and a negative slope signals decline. The R-squared value tells you how consistent the trend is: a high R-squared means the athlete's trajectory is predictable, while a low value means performance varies a lot between meets regardless of the overall trend.

How the Phase Classification Works

This tool classifies each lifter into one of three phases based on their regression slope per year relative to their current scoring baseline. IMPROVING lifters show a meaningful positive slope - the regression line is clearly headed upward. PLATEAUING lifters show a slope near zero relative to their score level, meaning results are fluctuating but not trending in either direction. DECLINING lifters have a meaningfully negative slope, indicating consistent drops in adjusted performance over time.

The classification uses the scored formula you select - DOTS, Wilks, or IPF GL - which normalizes performance for bodyweight so comparisons across weight classes are valid. A 400kg total at 83kg and a 400kg total at 120kg score very differently, and the trajectory engine accounts for this.

Understanding the Projections

The 6-month and 1-year projections extend the regression line forward in time. They represent where the athlete would score if their current trend continues at the same rate. These are mathematical extrapolations, not predictions - factors like injury, training changes, age, or weight class shifts can all alter the trajectory. Treat projections as a benchmark against which to measure future performance, not a guaranteed outcome.